Exclusive: Impact Databank Projects U.S. Wine Market To Expand For 22nd Consecutive Year
Due to a still-sluggish economy, particularly in the on-trade environment, the U.S. wine market is projected to inch ahead a mere 0.2% by the end of this year, to a total volume of 321.7 million nine-liter cases, according to the 2015 edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s IMPACT Databank Review and Forecast. Once again, sparkling wines will pace industry growth, with a projected volume gain of 6% this year, to 17.7 million cases, accounting for a 5.5% share of the total market. 2015 will mark the seventh consecutive annual gain for sparkling wines, which suffered a temporary blow during the financial crisis of 2008.
Imported sparkling wine growth is being driven primarily by Prosecco, whose total 2015 volume represents a projected sevenfold increase for the category since 2008. Two Prosecco brands—La Marca from E.&J. Gallo and Mionetto’s flagship brand—are estimated to be the largest sparkling wine imports for 2015, ahead of Spain’s Freixenet and Italy’s Martini & Rossi. Champagne brands Veuve Clicquot and Moët & Chandon continue to lead in retail dollar terms. Among domestic brands, Constellation’s Cook’s, Gallo’s Andre and Barefoot Bubbly, and Korbel remain the largest-selling brands by volume.
While wine consumption is projected to expand in 2015 for its 22nd consecutive annual gain, its 0.2% estimated volume increase represents the smallest rise in that entire span. And after steadily increasing from 1994-2011, per-capita wine consumption is projected to decline for the fourth consecutive year, as Americans bypass wine in favor of spirits, RTDs and cider. Including bulk imports used for American brands, the domestic table wine category is projected to inch ahead in 2015. The primary growth driver in recent years has been Moscato, while on the import side double-digit gains continue to come from New Zealand wines, and on a much smaller scale, French rosé.
Barefoot Cellars will continue to be the only brand with retail sales value exceeding $1 billion, Impact projects, while boxed wine Franzia will remain the largest seller in volume terms. Australia’s Yellow Tail leads all import labels comfortably by both value and volume. Globally, the U.S. wine market surpassed France as the world’s largest wine-consuming nation two years ago, and is expected to remain so for the foreseeable future, although American drinkers still lag far behind in per-capita terms.
For more information and to purchase The 2015 U.S. Wine Market as well as other exclusive Shanken reports, visit impactdatabank.com.