No recession expected in 2016 or 2017

Sep 09, 2016

No recession expected in 2016 or 2017    

Economic indicators do not point to a recession this year or next, according to research from the California Economic Forecast.

Nationwide, consumer confidence is near a seven-year high and corporate profits are trending up, which slumped prior to the Great Recession. And even though more people are buying cars and homes, household debt levels are tame, said Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast. The current seven-year economic expansion is old but it's not running on fumes, he said.

"We really don't have any imbalances or bubble concerns. Therefore, at this time, we don't see any recession - none. If you were wondering about 2017 and all those blogs and articles (forecasting a recession), well forget about them," Schniepp told a room of about 300 people at the Hyatt Regency in Westlake Village Sept. 8 during the 2016 Los Angeles County and Ventura County Economic Outlook.

Wages are rising and although the threat of higher interest rates looms, full or nearly full employment will continue to spur spending, according to the report. Even though this year's GDP growth of about 1.6 percent has some concerned that a recession is on the horizon, 2017's projected 2.9 percent GDP growth should stymie those concerns, Schniepp said.

Similar to his February forecast, Schniepp said that Ventura County's economy is lagging behind its tri-county and Southern California neighbors. Read more

Posted in Dr. Ken Hardwood.